Foreign Office Cautioned Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.