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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.