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The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|