Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August yielded no concrete results.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Nicole Butler
Nicole Butler

A tech enthusiast and streaming expert with over a decade of experience in digital media and content creation.